A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
