Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
